WILL TEN HAG STAY?

The Overlap Newsletter #3

Welcome back to the latest edition of The Overlap Newsletter. Manchester City had their Premier League victory parade on Sunday and although their moods may not have been dampened by the weather, there was still a bitter taste in the air after their FA Cup loss to local rivals, Manchester United at the weekend. You can watch Wayne Rooney answer 53 quick-fire questions with Gary Neville over on The Overlap Youtube channel. Follow the link below to listen to the latest episode of It Was What It Was with Rob Draper and Jonathan Wilson, where the duo discuss Liverpool’s 1984 European Cup victory.

Quiz Question…

Who are the 4 British players to have won the Champions League with foreign teams?

Answer to follow at the end of the Newsletter…

I couldn’t face going to Wembley on Saturday. That’s how little confidence I had in Manchester United’s ability to stop Manchester City doing the double again! And yet it turned out to be a beautiful day. And a great performance after a horrible season that might just change everything for Erik ten Hag…

I love being decisive and confronting a problem head on. I hate the idea of sitting on the fence. However sometimes in life, if you’re unsure, the best thing to do is to stop and take a deep breath. There are occasions where sticking with what you have and seeing how a situation develops is a decision in itself.

There’s no doubt Erik ten Hag’s FA Cup win has put Manchester United in an awkward position. This has been an unacceptably poor Premier League season for the club. Of course, ten Hag will argue that he hasn’t had anything like a consistent enough squad to pick from, especially his back four. But even so, the lack of control in many games has been alarming.

And yet he has two cups in two years. He has proven he can win trophies with this side. He has matched José Mourinho as the most successful United manager since Sir Alex Ferguson. I think he’s earned the right to go on. It’s not exactly a ringing endorsement but the first consideration when removing a manager is you have the right and better replacement. Simply there is no outstanding candidate to replace him that would make an immediate and massive upgrade.

If you have the opportunity to appoint someone like Jürgen Klopp, as Liverpool did in 2015, or Pep Guardiola, as City did in 2016, then it makes sense to change. But there’s no-one out here who will suddenly take this United squad on to another level. They might do somewhat better but even with Guardiola in charge, this United team wouldn’t win the Premier League.

If that seems a negative reason for keeping ten Hag, there are also more strategic issues to consider. United have been through so many cycles of managers in recent years, especially in the run up to ten Hag arriving, with Solskjær being an interim, then full-time for two and half seasons, followed by Ralf Rangnick. The constant changing of style and direction doesn’t help. They almost need to let this cycle run its course.

Because this club is already going through a massive change. The club has new owners settling in with INEOS and their Director of Sport Sir Dave Brailsford. There will be a new CEO in Omar Berrada in July and, at some point, a new sporting director in Dan Ashworth. They already have a new Chief Financial Officer in Roger Bell and technical director in Jason Wilcox. That amounts to a management revolution which was clearly needed and intended to change the culture completely. There’s already instability coming to Old Trafford and I feel there is a strong case to build those foundations and let them settle before swapping the manager.

United should be looking at season 2025-26. There’s a strong possibility Guardiola will be leaving Manchester City then. If ten Hag isn’t the man to exploit that opportunity, it will become clear and they can take their time next season to decide on the coach they think is the best. But if he proves himself, then you will have rebuilt the foundations without the additional disruption of a new coach and all his staff below him.

Politically INEOS may also feel that as soon as they appoint a new manager, the spotlight will turn on them. That’s maybe not a good reason for sticking with ten Hag but it remains true. There’s no hiding place once you’ve made your appointment and you would want Ashworth and Berrada to be all over that decision. Right now, they can’t even work for the club. So that pause for breath might be enough to save ten Hag. If so, he has to demonstrate that Saturday’s performance can be a spring board for next season.

I had a fascinating hour or two with him at Carrington a few weeks ago. It felt as though he had sought out the opportunity for that interview. I certainly hadn’t been mithering him or asking for time. And I think there’s been a change in his approach this month. In press conferences, he’s much more aggressive and on the front foot. It was great to see his interactions with Roy Keane and Alan Shearer after the game. He took on direct questions and came back with humour and some grit. That shows him in a good light. Maybe people hadn’t warmed to his personality: he can seem a bit rigid at times. But he’s come out fighting. I liked that he said: “I win trophies and if they don’t want me, l’ll go and win trophies elsewhere.” That was punchy.

His argument to me was that the criticism had gone too far given that he has around 30 different combinations of a back four this season. “Give me a back four and I’ll win you games” was his message. I agree. But I also said that given the back four has been so unstable, why is the midfield so open? Playing with Casemiro at the base and two No.8s so high up the pitch, left them exposed. The distances between them were huge, there was no compactness.

I get that you don’t want to change your philosophy because it confuses players. But this was a clear case where compromise was needed. I think that changed after the 4-0 defeat to Crystal Palace, a real shock to the system. He got it spot on on Saturday: that midfield box of Kobbie Mainoo, Sofyan Amrabat, Scott McTominay and Bruno Fernandes, was superb, so hard to play through. Of course, it also helped massively that Lisandro Martínez and Raphaël Varane were back.

There has been a hint in the past few weeks that City struggle against that system, when the middle of the pitch is crowded. Real Madrid, Arsenal and, to an extent, Tottenham (even though they lost) have managed to frustrate them. That said, there’s not doubt in my mind Guardiola got it wrong on Saturday with his initial line up. Selecting Mateo Kovačić was a backward step that allowed United a foothold in the game. Only when Jérémy Doku came on did you see them stretch United and that duel with Aaron Wan-Bissaka was superb in the second half.

But ten Hag also got it right, so credit to him for that. One last point, however: only Louis van Gaal has been able to beat top teams with United playing creatively on the front foot since Sir Alex Ferguson retired. And even then, only occasionally. It’s one thing beating City in a one-off on the counter attack. United will only really be back when they can take on the leading teams in Europe and play them at their own game. That’s the challenge ten Hag has to meet - if he stays.

Stick To Football Behind The Scenes

If you could time travel, which footballing era would you want to play in?

I always think now, if I was time travelling, I would time travel forward. Every team when I watch the full back’s, has started to mesmerise me and I think, how would I have even survived today? Waching Porro at Spurs going to midfield and doing what he does. You see what Stones does at City playing in midfield, with Kyle Walker having to tuck in and get back out again… my job was really simple when I played. If my left back went forward, I’m tucking round, and if I’m going forward, he would be tucking round me. If the ball comes in to me, I had the option to pass to my right-winger, into my striker, to my central midfield player, or to my centre-back. I’m serving 15 yards, I might hit a ball into my striker, but that was my game - quite methodical. What full back’s get asked to do on the ball now and the positions they are being asked to take up, are on a much higher degree of difficulty. I can’t even relate to what they are now being asked to do.

Quiz Answer:

Paul Lambert

Steve McManaman

Owen Hargreaves

Gareth Bale

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