WHO WILL WIN THE PREMIER LEAGUE?

The Overlap Newsletter #1

May 14, 2024

Welcome to the first edition of The Overlap Newsletter. Every week you’ll be reading Gary Neville’s take on the current big issues, exclusively here. We will also keep you across The Overlap News and all things tactics. And what a few weeks it has been! Our very own Gary Neville was the latest star to sit in the hot seat on Stick To Football, whilst Eddie Howe, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Anthony Gordon, Eric Dier and Bastian Schweinsteiger exclusively spoke to the channel. We also launched the new football history podcast, It Was What It Was last week - listen to the latest episode where Jonathan Wilson and Rob Draper discuss the dramatic 1989 Arsenal-Liverpool title decider over a two-part special, the first out now following the link below:

It Was What It Was

Quiz Question…

Five teams have had back to back promotions to the Premier League. With Ipswich being the fifth, can you name the other four?

Answer to follow at the end of the Newsletter…

This week, I’ll be looking at Arsenal’s development as the Premier League title race heads to the final day of the season, Rasmus Højlund’s struggles at Manchester United and avoiding a franchise league…

The doggedness of Arsenal’s second half at Old Trafford on Sunday afternoon was the marker of a great team: a title-winning team.

That’s not to say they will be crowned Premier League champions this weekend. Arsenal may have to settle for second. They may not get the trophy and medals, but something has changed in their game. And there is almost more beauty in defending their 1-0 lead against Manchester United than their greatest champagne football.

Don’t get me wrong, they’ve played much better than they did at Old Trafford. In fact, nothing this season has quite matched the fluidity and style they showed in the first six months of last season. Arsenal looked amazing for most of 2022-23. But ultimately they didn’t look like a title-winning side.

There was a lack of seriousness about the way they finished last season. Elite sport is about being consistent and reliable in the most-difficult moments. Everyone playing elite sport has talent. But talent is only part of the equation. Talent gets you in the room to compete. But greatness comes from delivering in those moments of the season when it matters, under the highest pressure, whatever the environment. That’s why a league tests you like a cup doesn’t. You can lift yourself for a cup game but to do it every three days, or every weekend, for ten months requires a tougher mindset.

Last season, when the pressure came, Arsenal were conceding soft goals, they showed a mental fragility. There was an emotional immaturity associated with that, something child like and over excited. I wonder if they got caught up with the idea of being champions, whether they started to talk about it in the dressing room? I bet they haven’t talked about it this season. Where there was fragility, now there is backbone.

I’m not an Arsenal fan, but it makes me proud and happy to watch a team like Arsenal mature from being pretenders to genuine contenders. All serious sides evolve this way. Even Manchester City had to toughen up to win the Champions League. Pep Guardiola essentially ended up playing with four centre halves to win the treble. City became a team of giants. Jürgen Klopp did something similar at Liverpool, where the frenetic, heavy-metal football, which was so exciting to watch but uncontrolled, changed when Virgil van Dijk and Alisson arrived and imposed a more-defensive structure.

Arsenal may not get there this season. In all likelihood, City will do their job against Spurs today and West Ham on Sunday. But second isn’t necessarily failure. It’s about how you finish. Last season they failed that test. This season they have finished well. Irrespective of what happens, Arsenal are a proper team now. A champion team.

The Amazon Prime documentary, 99, about the Manchester United treble season is out this week and it was in my head when I was watching Rasmus Højlund struggle at Old Trafford on Sunday. Having had that excellent spell in mid winter, he’s now gone ten games with just one goal. There’s no doubt in my mind he has all the attributes to be a top-quality striker and United need to show patience with him. But it was almost impossible for him on Sunday.

Watching the 99 premiere last week, a theme develops towards the end of the film. We started the Champions League final against Bayern with Ryan Giggs on the right in front of me, David Beckham in central midfield and Jesper Blomqvist on the left. Of course, David and I usually played on the right side together, with Ryan on the left. But Roy Keane and Paul Scholes, our central midfielders, were both suspended, which is why we changed.

It never felt right and in the documentary we were all independently saying the same. All the patterns of play we were used to had been disrupted. We weren’t getting the crosses in like normal. I’d hardly ever played behind Ryan but I knew David’s game inside out. Jesper was more used to playing with different central midfielders.

For the last nine minutes or so, after Ole Gunnar Solskjær came on, Becks came back to play on the right with me and Ryan went left. All of a sudden it felt right again. Normal service was resumed. It was like “Game on!” Our match started then. We’d played together like that for nine years and knew every single feint and movement. All our chances and crosses came in the last nine minutes of the match.

Watching Højlund, I felt sorry for him. You talk about the difficulty United have had putting out a consistent back four this season. But it’s the same up front. Højlund doesn’t know what the pattern of play is, whether the wide player is going to go to the line or come inside. You can see he’s making good runs all the time and then the wide man will come back inside and there will be a 15-pass sequence. Another time he’ll drop in and try to join in with that and that will inevitably be the time the wide man decides to get to the line and cross it. Until United can establish a consistent pattern of play, being centre forward in that team will be an impossible job.

We don’t want stagnant franchise football, with an elite group of 25 clubs pretty much guaranteed Premier League status, with the odd season in The Championship for a few before they inevitably return. We want a competitive league that rewards up-and-coming talents. We’ve just seen the three promoted teams in Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United relegated. And of the three teams likely to come back up, probably two of them will be from last season’s Premier League: Leicester for sure and perhaps Leeds or Southampton. And Norwich, also in the play offs, are still receiving Premier League parachute payments. We need to be careful we don’t sleepwalk into a franchise league.

Stick to Football - Behind the Scenes

Toughest Opponent:

Reflecting on the battles with Arsenal, I have to admit, Overmars was a real thorn in my side for four or five years. Those matches, especially at Old Trafford, were a massive challenge.

Pre-Match Meal:

I stuck to a classic pre-match meal routine – grilled chicken, steamed broccoli, and a side of pasta. It was the go-to combination for me, offering the right mix of energy and nutrition to stay at the top of my game.

Pre-Game Anthem:

You know, there's something magical about the Stone Roses' "This is the One." When I took over from Roy Keane as captain, I wanted a song that truly embodied the spirit of Manchester. That guitar riff still gives me goosebumps every week. It's not just a song; it's the start of that special moment when you know the game is about to kick off. The connection between "This is the One" and Manchester United is unbreakable – it's part of what makes this club so special, and I believe it should stay that way.

Quiz Answer:

Watford

Manchester City

Norwich

Southampton

If YOU have a question for one or all of our Stick To Football team, then submit it using the button below or use the comment section for a chance to have it answered on the next edition.

The Overlap